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The line of this game is very close to the 190 points, while I was expecting it to be in the mid 180's. So, I'll explore this potential error of the bookies.

The Sixers are coming back home after a long road trip in the West, playing 6 games and never having more than two days to rest (they played at 2, 4, 6 and today at 8). Also they come from playing at Denver, a hard place to play because of the high altitude. And as they have just cameback to Philly barely in time to play tonight, the players didn't have time to rest and to have fresh legs for this game. So it's normal that they won't be ok in the attack today.

The team at the end of the road trip and already this year has passed against very powerful teams in the attack: Utah, Lakers and Denver are top offensive teams with a run and gun style of play and it wasn't weird to see the Sixers scoring more than the usual, while at the same time also suffering more points than the usual.

The main reason for that is that the games were playing on a way higher pace than the Sixers are used to play and the team can't control the pace. In those 3 games, the Sixers have shot 93 FG/game, while they are used to just shoot 80 FG/game. In today's game the Sixers will naturally slow down the pace to numbers close to what they are used to do, trying to control the game, using their good defense for that.

The Bucks without Redd will need to re-adapt. The team can't create so many dangerous situations in the perimeter anymore and when they tried to play without a lot of defensive concerns against the Wizards, they lost 77-100, shooting 3-18 3pts and being outscored in the paint by 34-50. So, in the last game against the Bobcats, the team changed their style of play, shooting just 9 3pts shots (2-9) and using their interior game more. That's why the Bucks outscored the Bobcats in the paint (50-44) and Bogut had a season high of 25 points (10-15 FG).

Today the Bucks will play on the same way, especially as they defeated the Bobcats by 93-89 and they don't have any motives to changes their style of play. The main problem is that the Sixers are very strong in defending the interior positions with Evans and Dalembert.

Dalembert is the 5th in the league in terms of blocks (2.59 bpg) and the Sixers have the second best rebound margin record in the league, with +2,65 per game, just behind Boston.

As the Sixers don't have any dangerous players in the perimeter, since Korver went to Utah, we will have an one-dimensional game, with the teams trying to force their interior game, so it will be hard to see the teams to get nice %'s today. I believe there will be a lot of FT, but with the Sixers being 27th in the league in that area and the Bucks just the 22th, I don't think we are going to lose the under thanks to that.

I predict a game with few points and the line is too high for the scenario of this game. Take the under.

www.andregomes.com

Pick : Under 189
Odds : 1.91
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor:
Date : 2008-01-09
Match Result : 83-87
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