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When I first looked to this game and saw that Denver was a 4,5 points favorite, I immediately thought the line was too short and I was expecting at least 6 points. The reason for this line is that Orlando is still the best team playing away from home with a 16-6 record, but the Magic aren't the same team that they were one month ago.

They are now proving that they are a young and inconsistent team, capable of in the last 10 games winning 4 in a row and then losing 3 games in a row. The scenario of this game isn't favorable for them. The team is mixing a weak defense with an enormous number of turnovers and normally this combination doesn't work well. The Magic won their last game in LA against the Clippers and they covered the handicap, but they allowed the Clippers to score 106 points! Do you know for how long the Clippers didn't score more than 100 points? The last time they did it was 10 games ago! In their 22 games, they have only scored more than 100 points three times.

This is clearly a sign that the team isn't defending well and the proof is completed with the fact that in their last 4 games, Orlando has allowed their opponents to shoot at least 46.7% FG. This is too high for a top team.

On the other side, Denver started well the year with good wins until they lost last Monday to Phoenix in a must win situation for the Suns, which made me pick Phoenix in that game. Besides this, Phoenix shot 20-32 3pts and certainly there wasn't a single team to shoot so well in the last months in a game. Even though Iverson and Carmelo played well, these numbers was just too much for Denver.

The matchup of tonight's game will be very favorable to Denver. In court there will be the best two rebounders in the league: Camby and Howard. Certainly Howard won't be able to dominate the interior game and obtain his normal percentage (60%). I believe he may play a good game, but his opposition will be very strong. On the other side, Turkoglu is playing this season as a PF and he will struggle with the aggressiveness of Kenyon Martin, as the Turkish isn't very aggressive while defending and Martin will take advantage from that.

Orlando has recently lost away against San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix and Boston and even though Denver isn't at the same level of these teams, they have a very solid home record of 14-5 and they had time to rest and they will take advantage of the bad shape of Orlando. Take Denver in here.

www.andregomes.com

Pick : Denver Nuggets (-4,5)
Odds : 1.91
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : The Greek
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor:
Date : 2008-01-12
Match Result : 113-103
Viewed: 319 times.