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Today two teams with defensive minds are going face to face. The bookies are offering a line of 187 points, something that I think it's too high for a game with the characteristics of this one. I was expecting the line to be in the low 180's.

Both teams are proving this season that they are good defensive teams and that's not news for anybody. The Spurs are the 3rd best defensive team in the league, just allowing 92.3 ppg and the Sixers are 9th with 95.9 ppg. And it's in the Sixers that I'll concentrate more my attention in this pick.

Even though they are just suffered an average of 95.9 ppg, since the beginning of 2008 the team has allowed in 5 games an average of 106.5 ppg! More than 10 points than their season average. The reason for this change wasn't thanks to a change to the style of team, but due to two factors:

The Sixers were in a road trip facing three top teams: Utah, Lakers and Denver, all of them run and gun teams. It was normal to see the Sixers not being able to control the pace of the match and because of that, they couldn't defend. After that, the team had one of the worst calendars in the league, playing b2b games after the road trip, one game at home and the other at Toronto in the following day. The team didn't have time to rest and to try to play their own game. Until the last game at home against the Bulls, they played 6 games in 10 days! For today's match they finally had time to rest, more than 2 days for the first time in 2008 and so, they should be able to defend at their level against the Spurs.

San Antonio on the other side began 2008 badly and they have been struggling offensively. Even against the worst team in the league at home, they were losing by 40-45 at halftime. Scoring 40 points in a half against the Wolves is just too bad to the true. Of course then the Wolves couldn't handle the rhythm and got outscored in the 2nd half by 43-61 and that's why they are the worst team in the league. The Sixers are way more consistent and they can defend much better. The team is 7-12 o/u away from home and when they face teams from the West, they are 2-6 o/u.

I expect a game where the winner of the game scores about 92/97 points and the loser doesn't score more than 90 points. Take the under.

www.andregomes.com

Pick : Under 187
Odds : 1.91
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : The Greek
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor:
Date : 2008-01-15
Match Result : 89-82
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