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I know it sounds a bit crazy to back an under in a game where Toulon is involved but I really think that the line is set too high.

There are several arguments to understand this pick. First one is that I rate Orleans as a great defensive team, they are among the best in Pro A, allowing 74 PPG. When they play at home, they like to play a slow tempo game, focusing on defence, and play long built system in attack where they often find solutions and open men at the 3 point line. Moreover, Coach Hervé is really smart, he knows that Toulon like to play an offensive game, and he will mainly put Aldo Curti to defend on Sean Colson, who’s Toulon go to guy, in order to slow down the visitors. Curti is in general back Up PG, but he’s a helle of a defender and should see more minutes. Second argument is a consequence of the first one. Orleans is focusing much on defence and sometimes they really seem to lack energy when they are attacking, their offensive players and scorers are really irregular and you can’t count on them to have great offensive efforts. In general Orleans’s scoring is quite poor, around 72 PPG.

But main argument is that Tony William’s is 90%chance to miss the game because he’s sick. The guy has just been impressive all year long, averaging 16 PPG and this is going to be a huge blow for guests. McPherson is coming back from illness, he’s likely to play but he did not train well week.

Without one of its offensive weapon, I think that Toulon will play a bit more cautious, it’s highly possible that this game turns into a defensive battle. Orleans will put much effort in order to limit Colson, plus they know they got to defend hard if they want to win. All this story coupled with the great line from pinnacle leaves me no opportunity but to back the under here



Pick : Under 158
Odds : 1.95
Stake : 4 / 10
Bookmaker : Pinnacle
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Date : 2008-01-19
Match Result : 80-75
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