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Semifinal for the Greek Cup.It is only one game,the winner goes to the final. On the one side,we have Olympiacos,a team with very good roster,started the season with many dreams,but the last 1-2 months had many bad results,resulting the 5th place of their Group at Euroleague and a defeat from PAOK at Greek League,that cost to the team any dreams for the first place of the Greek League(even if they win Panathinaikos at home,the will be one win behind and is extremely difficult Panathinaikos to lose from any other opponent).These results and due to the overwhelming pressure of the fans to the board,resulted the dismissal of Gerson and the appointment of Giannakis,coach of Greece national team and former coach of Maroussi.

This will be the debut for Giannakis and everyone expecting to see if he would be able to change some things at Olympiacos,even at so early stage.Giannakis,we could say that is the complete opposite of Gerson,at the coaching aspect,since he loves the defence and gives little-or even none,for some of his critics,myself included-consequence in offence.Olympiacos will probably play without Macijiaouskas(even though this isn’t 100% sure)while Blackney and Tsakalidis will play,but their condition is questionable.Woods won’t play,since he isn’t eligible to.

On the other side,we have Aris,where the things seem to go just fine.The team after a mediocre start and a bad period when there were rumours about Herbert being sacked,found it’s way and with new and very talented pg Washington,who took the place of Castle(he will go to Malaga),had some very good performances.Aris will be without Terry,an absence that can be considered as importand,albeit Terry was quite unstable so far.

OK,I rate this match as 50-50.Olympiacos will have a new coach,a home court full of enthousiastic(since the appointment of Giannakis)fans.But it is very doubtfull if Giannakis will be able to make the changes he wants from the first game.Moreover,many players which are right now at Olympiacos’s roster,I don’t think that they fit exactly to the style of basketball Giannakis want to play.For example.Greer,considered one of Olympiacos stars,I doubt if Giannakis would chose him to be in the team.My personal opinion,is that Giannakis was about to come to Olympiacos the summer,when he would have the chance to pick the players he want,but due to the extreme pressure of Olympiacos fans,Olympiacos board had to bring Giannakis to the team a little bit earlier than they were planning.That’s why at the presentation of the new coach,both Giannakis and the president of the team,asked from the fans patience.

Aris seem to be more stable at the moment.They don’t have the deep roster Olympiacos has,but their starting five are quite capable to cause serious trouble.Moreover,they have great motivation,because they know that the Cup is the only thing they can win this year.They know that they can’t beat Panathinaikos or Olympiacos at a series of games,but at single games,everything can happen. Finally,one small detail.The final will be ofcourse a single game,with fans of both contenders.If Olympiacos and Panathinaikos are the two teams which will fight for the trophy(Panathinaikos is playing today with Panellinios,obviously they will win),the game won’t took place neither at Athens nor Peiraias,because the big stadiums at these cities are the home courts of these teams.That means that the game will be hosted at another city,resulting that the fans of both teams will have to travel.With the extreme hostility between these teams and with the death of a fan at riots last year being quite recent,I think that the last think the Greek state would want,is 2000fans of both teams,fighting at a small city and to the national roads(which would’t be the first time that would happen).Having in mind that Panathinaikos will be to the final for sure,it won’t cause me much surprise,if I see today at Olympiacos-Aris,the referees to be with Aris side,in order to avoid a Panathinaikos-Olympiacos clash at the final.

Having all these in mind,I think that Aris+8.5 is a great choise that shouldn’t be missed,so higher stakes than usual for me here.Even if Aris won’t win the match,I think that they are more than capable of fighting until the end.I also see value at 4.90(pinnacle) of Aris ml,for the more risky ones.



Pick : Aris+8.5
Odds : 1.90
Stake : 8 / 10
Bookmaker : Bet365
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Date : 2008-02-06
Match Result : 72-70
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