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I like this bet and still I will be a bit careful here. I have two rules that I need extremely good reasoning to bend one of them when it comes to Totals. Not to go Under when the Total is below 180 and not to go Over when the Total is above 224. Why? Simply because one quarter can kill your bet even if the game in his majority went according to plan. Still, today I feel there is a good Under opportunity and as much as it goes against rule number one and usually I don't like to bet Under on a game I'm watching (what fun is it to watch a game that you hope will have few baskets if any?), I will go for the Under here.

First of all, Detroit reacted to four of the five previous home losses with an Under. Secondly, Detroit U/O record against team with a winning record, games that Detroit comes more concentrated is 22 – 9 in favor of Under.

Third is the averages that Detroit and Spurs allow their opponents. Detroit gives only 88 points to opponent playing at home while Spurs allow only 93.7 to their opponents on a road game. Combined it gives us 181.5 total, but it is the average against all teams and both teams aren't that good offensive and more important their style of play is such that you simply can't compare and 3 points difference between the averages in general and the total for a game between the teams just doesn't add up.

Fourth reason is the average between the teams. In the last 10 games, only once in regular time did the score past 180 points mark. In the five games held in Detroit, the scores were 175, 173, 178 (but this is NBA Finals, so you could say that the scores would go down naturally), 155, 171 – both in regular season.

I don't see this game going past the 180 points and I'm ready to take the risk on the 179 points final score, hoping that is wouldn't be the case, but that is the reason I'm not going full stakes on this one (if it was 180.5 it would have been 10 stakes bet).

I took the bet including the OT, but many sites offer us a great chance to take this one without the OT and that is the bet I'm tipping, but if you don't have such chance, take it with OT also, just lower the stakes a bit.

Final score of 79 – 71 to Detroit seems about right here, maybe a bit higher, like 83 – 75, but still, safely below the Total set I believe.

One other bet that I like, but waiting for the line to drop a bit is Boston to win over Utah. If there will be a chance to get 1.80 – 1.85 for Boston -6, I will take it myself and write a tip on this site. Many of you got local bookies, so if you can get this line, take Boston with medium stakes (5 – 7 stakes bet).



Pick : Under 178.5
Odds : 1.91
Stake : 8 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor:
Date : 2008-03-15
Match Result : 84-80
Viewed: 904 times.