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Toronto receives Denver today in a very important game for both teams and frankly I won't risk to say which team is going to win, as the Raptors have the home court advantage and Denver will come hungry knowing that the Warriors lost their last game. The totals line is at 229 points and I think it's where there is value in here. Denver is 9-1 O/U in their last 10 games and in a streak of consecutive overs and this line is too high thanks to that. For you to understand, this line is at the same level of a Denver vs Phoenix or a Denver vs Golden State, where both matches played at Denver had a line of 229 points. But obviously Toronto won't want to play a pure run and gun game today and they have a lot of motives for that.

These two teams faced each other last week and Denver simply burned the Raptors by 137-105. In that game the Raptors played defense as though it was an afterthought, allowing the host Nuggets to score 44 points in the first quarter, the most any team has produced against the Raptors. Toronto tried to play run and gun, but they were completely slaughtered by Denver, as the Nuggets scored 33 fast break points against just 9 pts of Toronto. The Raptors also allowed a team-record of 44 points in the first quarter. So today Toronto won't want to play at the same rhythm of Denver, because they have Chris Bosh back and if they want to involve Bosh in the offensive move, they need to slow down the pace and put Bosh in a good spot for the shots. I've found some statements of Sam Mitchell and in all of them he says what's the key for this game:

"The key for us is we have to play defense. We can't play into their hands. When the game gets fast, it's real tempting to get up and down and shoot quick shots. We have to make sure we take good, quality shots and get back on defense."

Patience, Mitchell insists, will be critical for his Raptors, who will get looks against the defensively challenged Nuggets. "We have to limit possessions,'' Mitchell said of Denver's high-octane offense. "We have to compact the game."

Another important fact is that the game will be played at 3:30pm and normally in these kind of games, it's hard for the teams to make such offensive performances. For 229 points, I'm not talking about something like 50% FG or close, it would have to be higher than that, with the winner coming close to 60% FG, something that seems extremely hard to do, in a match with no major favorite played in the afternoon. Denver in the last four games has allowed their opponents to shoot better than 60% FG in two of them and in the other two was Denver itself to shoot 54 and 60% FG. This is something extremely hard to repeat and with a line of 229 points, we can feel secure. Just remember that for instance a 113-115 would still gives us the win and this was the result of Denver @Philadelphia. Take the under in here.



Pick : Under 229
Odds : 1.94
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : Canbet
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor: http://www.andregomes.com
Date : 2008-03-23
Match Result : 100-109
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