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Dallas plays today at LA against the Clippers, after having lost another game against a team with a positive record. The team is now 10-10 after the All Star break and with a funny trend. The team is 0-10 against teams with winning records and 10-0 against teams with losing records! If we look to the road games of Dallas during this span, the over is 6-0 when Dallas was the dog, but the under was 3-0-1 when Dallas was the away favorite. I believe this line is too high, mainly thanks to the recent games of both games. Dallas played at Denver and against the Warriors and both games went over. At the same time, the Clippers played against Utah and Memphis and also both games went over. So, I see this 190 points being too high and overvalued. Especially because Dallas won't play with a run and gun style like they were forced to play in their games against Denver and Golden State. I actually believe they will force their defensive end, at least that's how they have been playing against weaker teams after the All Star break. In this 10-0 record, Dallas has never allowed their opponents to shoot better than 50% FG, only allowing their opponents to shoot an average of 41.9% FG.

On the other side the Clippers defeated at home Memphis by 110-97, shooting 53.2% FG and that happened because Memphis was coming from a big win at LA against the Lakers and they tried to win the game with their offensive, completely neglecting their defense. The rookie Al Thornton scored 39 pts and shot 13-23 FG, a performance he won't obviously repeat tonight. Especially as the team at home against good defensive teams have ridiculous numbers. They scored 72 pts against Portland, 80 against Philadelphia, 73 against Detroit or 76 against Boston. Today Dallas, who will desperately need to win today, will make an A effort in their defense to avoid surprises. So, I doubt the Clippers will be able to get close to the barrier of the 90 points tonight. Take the under in here.

Pick : Under 190
Odds : 1.94
Stake : 8 / 10
Bookmaker : Pinnacle
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor: http://www.andregomes.com
Date : 2008-04-01
Match Result : 86-93
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