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Wow, I really really like this bet. I believe that this is another dumb mistake by Centrebet and I hope that I'm right. As I see it, we got a bet that has 45% of winning and only 2% of losing or a bet with 90% of winning, but 10% of losing and I will explain or a bet with:

Duncan is the main scorer from the following group (or Duncan + Davis) : Duncan, Ellis, Ginobili, Parker and Davis. Now, I won't settle for Duncan and his marvelous odds, but add to back ups. Davis, who got the lowest odds here (3.4) and Parker that got the highest odds (6.7). The teams played so far two games between them. Ellis and Ginobili were mediocre at best and even when Duncan was out, Manu didn't take the game to him and it was Bonner (!) that kept Spurs from getting embarrassed. Their numbers were 6 and 16 for Ellis and 20 and 13 for Ginobili. Both of them are out for me as the bets go. How about Davis? Well, he scored 18 in the first game, while Duncan was out and finished the top scorer from the other four that are in the competition and in the second game 34 points and finished the highest scorer. So his odds are right on the money here.

So why is he only as back up? Well, don't like the odds and have a good feeling on Duncan here. Duncan as I mentioned missed the first game, but scored 32 in the second and is it a surprise against a team without any solid big guy? Parker was good in the second game as well with 31 points, but I like him mainly as a backup, because of the great odds he got.

So I will split the bet the next way:

Backup – Davis – three units and Parker 1.5 units.

Main bet – Duncan 5.75 units.

We get this way a solid 3.1 bet with very low chances of losing and a decent chance to win.

Another possible bet is Duncan + Davis as main bets without back ups. That way we win if Davis finishes as the top scorer as well, but the odds are ole 2.1 and we lose Parker as back up.

I will take the risk of going all the way with almost no chance to lose.



Pick : Duncan as the main scorer with Davis and Parker as back up
Odds : 3.20
Stake : 10 / 10
Bookmaker : Centrebet
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor:
Date : 2008-04-02
Match Result : Parker 26 pts
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