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It seems a little weird, but this game will begin the playoffs for Utah this season. I know it's still six games to the end of the regular season, but look at the schedule of Utah and the teams they are going to face: Spurs, Hornets, Dallas, Denver, Houston and Spurs again! Now you understand what I was talking about. On the other side the Spurs have already entered this spirit last Sunday and they had two games with amazing defensive performances against Houston and Golden State, only allowed 88 and 92 points. I remember that the 92 points scored by the Warriors, was the first game in a series of 37 games where the Warriors have always scored more than 100 points and so, it's easy to understand how well the Spurs defended in that game.

If we analyze the lines the bookies offered for those games, they were afraid and presented extremely low lines, just 175 points for the Spurs game against Houston and just 207 points against the Warriors. The result was two overs in those games. Also this game has an higher total than it should have, thanks to the fact that Utah is coming from five overs in a row, however those games were against Charlotte, Clippers, Wolves, Wizards (in the last game of a tiring road trip) and the Wolves again. Well these teams can't defend not even close at the level of the Spurs. I think the line of this game should be at 193/195, having in account that the last game between these two teams ended 97-97 with the line being 193,5 points. This team of Utah can also be pretty aggressive in the defense and we've seen that last season against the Rockets in the playoffs and the time where they have to be aggressive starts now. In this sequence of five overs in a row, the team scored in a single quarter a max of 42 points and the min of 30 points, something the Spurs won't allow and if they allow, they reduce the pace of the game in the following quarter of the game.

The Spurs will just make their 3rd game in 6 days, no back to back games and this allows them to execute their best defense and it's curious to see what Bruce Bowen said about the defense of the Spurs.

"We haven't yet had that defensive game that makes everybody say, 'Wow,'" Bowen said. "When we have a game without any defensive breakdowns, then you can cheer. But we haven't had that great defensive game, and it's because of the little intricacies; things like one guy not rotating, or being a step slow. Things like that."

For today I expect a real playoff game with both teams giving their max effort in the defense, as they know it's the only way to win games and later series in the playoffs. Take the under in here.

Pick : Under 198
Odds : 1.94
Stake : 8 / 10
Bookmaker : Canbet
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor: http://www.andregomes.com
Date : 2008-04-04
Match Result : 90-64
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