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Game 3 tonight of this series and the Spurs are right now up by 2-0. So we all know what the Suns need to do today: win! A defeat today would put the Spurs in the lead by 3-0 and in the history of the NBA no team was able to win a series after trailing by 0-3 and if there wasn't any until now, that won't happen against the Spurs for sure. I believe the Suns will win today and even by a big margin, but a spread of -7 brings little juice to the Suns side and every backer of Phoenix is saying that this will be a complete blowout. The moneyline for the Suns is at a ridiculous 1.30 (-300), now tell if that has any kind of value?

For this game I'll explore a different side: the totals. The line is at 193,5 points a little bit higher than in the first two games of the series, which were 192,5 and 191, which were normal and correct, according to the recent games between these two teams. However there is something very powerful telling me that this series won't be as normal as it was the series last season, as the Spurs won't want to play at their normal rhythm, but they will want to play at the normal pace of the Suns. With Shaq already in Phoenix, there were two games between these two teams in the regular season. The Suns won both games in games with low scorings: 94-87 and 96-79 and these games were played at the pace the Spurs wanted, with lots of aggressiveness and half court defense. And this was clearly the plan for the Spurs in this series. But with the Suns up by 48-40 at the halftime of Game 1, Popovich had to change and put the team playing faster, using a lot the counter attacks, as they had two games on the same way that they were down at halftime. This change not only worked in the rest of Game 1 and in the Game 2, as the Spurs won both games. As an example of this change, the Spurs had more fast break points than the Suns (23-4), something almost impossible to happen in this matchup.

Today the scenario will be the same, with the fact that the game will be played at Phoenix and where the home team will dictate the pace of the game, which will be even higher than the pace of the first two games of the series. Grant Hill probably won't play and Leandro Barbosa will start the game. Barbosa was terrible at San Antonio, especially in the second game shooting 0-7 FG, so he will come with the motivation to bounce back today, which won't be hard to happen. Another important factor of this series is that the teams aren't being able to stop the best players of their opponents, who seem to be all in great form: Nash shot 10-15 FG; Amare 13-25 FG; Parker 13-25 FG and Ginobili 9-17 FG. Today the good form of these players won't disappear all of a sudden.

Another important fact is that in the Game 2, both teams were terrible from the FT line: Spurs 18-29 FT and Suns 18-25 FT and still the game ended 102-96, with 198 points been scored! The worst a team did in this series was shooting 46.2% FG, which is already a reasonable number. So for today I expect this game to come close to have 200 points and while the bookies continue to put the line of this series on the low 190's, the over will always have value. Take the over in here.



Pick : Over 193,5
Odds : 1.91
Stake : 8 / 10
Bookmaker : Paddy Power
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor: http://www.andregomes.com
Date : 2008-04-25
Match Result : 99-115
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