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Second consecutive match at Martín Carpena for Unicaja after a comfortable win (84-60) over weak Leon. The hosts were in control after a slow start which had Leon ahead 16-15 but Malaga stepped up a gear and showed the difference in class. Malaga had five players with double figures among them Berni Rodriguez dominated the court with a very mature play highlighting 7 assists.

Despite not having the best material of the last years in his hands, Scariolo seems to have build a team based on the same strong characteristics, such a strong defense, good passing game and a relatively accurate 5-to-5 play. Generally, I rate Malaga slightly worse than last year and i expect them to exhibit some instability throughout the year and of course the usual difficulties sin offense, typical signs of which were depicted on their first game against Estudiantes (64-69). Malaga is not the type of team that can run the game and achieve big point differences, however this is kind of tricky since if they are stable in defense they can score slowly and take advantage of not receiving to open up the margins. This was absolutely the case against Leon last Saturday.

No comparison for me among Leon and Murcia in any aspect. Murcia was significantly strengthened this summer and - for their level - their roster has quality and for the first time some bench depth. Hunter (he gave the win to Polaris with an amazing buzzer beater against Bilbao), Reinner, Chris Thomas, Kammerichs and Fajardo strengthened the roster when placed among serious players like Gavel and Risacher. What counts most in my lean towards the visitors is the ability they so far showed to play hard defense (their main drawback last year), forcing Bilbao at 67 pts. and Granada at 73 pts at home (83 after OT). Of course somebody may oppose this approach by pointing out the difficulty they had to win Bilbao and immaturity signs when they lost a 15 pt. lead (40-55) against Granada to finally lose the game.

Latest news report that apart from the know absence of Jiri Welsch, slight physical problems appeared for players like Berni Rodriguez and Carlos Jimenez, so i think that Scariolo might use them but in no case he will leave them longer than necessary in the court. Murcia with full roster tomorrow, so the interesting point here is to see how much Polaris players will be affected (i don't think so much physically by the OT) mentally by the way they lost the game against Granada. ''We are angry with the way we lost, because we had a great chance to win away from home and we are not going to have many chances like this and to a direct rival in the struggle for permanence," said Hussein (Murcia coach) after the game and his words i am sure are marked on his players minds.

All in all, i think Murcia is underestimated here by the books, i believe the loss at Granada will strengthen them tomorrow and i expect to exhibit some resistance against Unicaja. I expected a HC around 10-11 points maximum thus the HC @13,5 provided by pinnacle is kind of high in my eyes. Values like 8 for the away win are even more tempting (and of course significantly riskier) but maybe some small stakes are in order since Unicaja is used to some weird losses in the beginning of each period. I will stick to the handicap though;

Pick : Murcia +13.5
Odds : 1.95
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : Pinnacle
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Date : 2007-10-17
Match Result :
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