BettingBasket Picks

Houston Comets vs Phoenix Mercury (By: A.Gomes)

Jaimeg@bettingbasket.com

One of the tasks of handicapping is to find the value in the lines offered by the oddmakers, wait for the movement of the public money and if the movement is opposite to the line we think it has value, that’s great as we have an even higher opportunity. Obviously that we still need to wait for the game to be played, but that’s not part of my competence. I think this game will be one of these cases. The team of Phoenix comes to Houston to play the Comets in a really important game for both teams, as both are 11-12 right now and they are trying to reach the playoffs.

These two teams have faced each other at Phoenix, with the Mercury winning, which means if they win again, they will get the upperhand over Houston, in a case of a tie in the record of these two teams at the end of the regular season. The totals line is currently at 177,5 points having started at 176, but a movement took it higher. It’s important to say that this movement was originated by two factors: the team of Phoenix has been on-fire offensively in their last matches. They come from 4 overs in a row, where they scoring average is 98.3 ppg and the whole game with an unbelievable 192.7 ppg! Besides that these two teams have faced each other earlier this month and the game ended with a result of 99-94 (193 points).

These are the main motives why the line has went to 177,5 points, however consistence is something there isn’t in this league and teams sooner or later start missing, as today’s game won’t be played in the same way as the previous match between these two teams was played. Phoenix has two faces this season, one on home games and the other one on away games. At home the team is 8-3 Over, but on the road they are 8-4 Under! This fact shows how the team can’t play on the road at the high pace they play at home. This is more evident after a win, as they are 7-3 Under in the following game.

Houston comes from a very important win over the Sparks, where a very powerful defense was capable of stop Parker, allowing the Sparks to score just 65 points in the regular time. In this game, Houston is a small favorite and they are 4-0 Under in this type of conditions this season. In the game played at Phoenix, it’s important to say that the game ended 99-94, with Houston shooting 52.8% FG and 8-16 3pts and still losing the game. This was clearly a warning sign for the Comets that if they play again today at a very high pace, they will most likely losing again against the Comets. Houston is 11-3 Under in home games revenging a same season loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons and Phoenix confirms the inconsistence of the WNBA teams, as they are 8-2 Under in road games after scoring 80 points or more this season.

I expect this game to have a lot of points, but not enough to pass the 177,5 mark. In my predictions I expect a winning team to score 85-90 points, while the losing team staying in the low 80’s. Take the under in here.

Pick : Under 177.5 Points
Odds : 1.91
Stake: 6
Bookmaker : SportingBet

Germany vs Puerto Rico (By: Sminker)

Jaimeg@bettingbasket.com

This is very improtant game for both teams. Germany yesterday lost against Croatia, Nowitzki was the best scorer, but he had a very bad shoot. Other German weapon is defence, yesterday they stopped Popovic and Ukic, but Tomas had a great game. Puerto Rico lost against Greece for 25, but Greece played very agressive in defence and they had a lot of counterattacks. Today I expect a different game, I think that both teams will play slow basketball and they want to find open shots. Both teams know that defence is very important. I saw Slovenia-Puerto Rico match and I was impressed with PR defence, they are great in this element but they showed such defence only against Slovenia. I expect this today and I think that this line is too high.

Pick : under 154.5
Odds : 1.95
Stake: 7
Bookmaker : Pinnacle

Croatia vs Germany (By: Hustler)

Jaimeg@bettingbasket.com

Maybe i am pushing my luck here, however i like this line for the first game as well. Main reasoning, apart from the importance of the game, the fact that both teams have shown that are able in the back part of the court, of course the presence of Bauermann and Repessa has something to do with that.

Repessa made that thing clear after a burst of Bagaric durign Acropolis Tournament, when the main tower of the team, showed reluctance in defense which along with some nerves send him back to Croatia after a training period of 20 days! Toughness seems to work for the Croatians, they are more reliable than ever and i have to admit that i would go for them tonight if it wasn't for the Nowitski factor.

I can't really see an open game, match will be close imo and usually this favors under bets. You might find this bet atm a little higher (Eurobet at 154.5 for 1,84) but sportingbet pays off normal time and 1,90 for this line is better for me, given that i expect the line to drop even further approaching game time. GL!

Pick : Under 153.5
Odds : 1.90
Stake: 7
Bookmaker : 10bet

Greece vs Puerto Rico (By: Hustler)

Jaimeg@bettingbasket.com

Pls. see main comment.GL!

Pick : Puerto Under 69.5
Odds : 1.85
Stake: 7
Bookmaker : Eurobet

Greece vs Puerto Rico (By: Hustler)

Jaimeg@bettingbasket.com

I don't know who of you have taken the opportunity to watch this Olympic QF tournament, but Greece is certainly on fire, a fire coming again from its tough defense. Providing in the most crucial game of all in this tournament (the winner qualifies directly in the Beijing Olympics) a line that big when a defensive monster like Greece is involved is false imo and despite most bookies have understood that setting the line around 153, Eurobet seems to hold their initial spot at 157 which is high in my eyes.

Yesterday, Greece took over New Zealand clearly holding some fatigue in the end, but the signs were clear once again. Defense is the key and when you can run do it, but never run without real chances of getting the hoop because that way you are giving the benefit to the opponent. Thus it is most probable we will see 15-20 sec. offensive plays tonight, only thing scaring me is the slightly relaxed play style of Puerto Rico who however performed relatively good in defense yesterday against a real offensive power liek Slovenia.

All in all a good (false?) offer by Eurobet, i am going to exploit it since i am convinced that Puerto will not score more than 70 tonight. This justifies my second bet, i think if the second comes true it is kind of difficult to lose the primal one.GL!

Pick : Under 156.5
Odds : 1.84
Stake: 8
Bookmaker : Eurobet

Slovenia vs Puerto Rico (By: Sminker)

Jaimeg@bettingbasket.com

I expect a little lower line, but ok. Slovenia is huge favourite here, they easily won first 2 matches. Against Korea they played with half strengths and won by 12, against Canada they showed very good performance, they played very good in defence (had some problems with Barrett, but they stopped English and Dalembert), in offence Lakovic played very good, Becirovic is also very important player, he had some problems with muscle but he will play. Under the basket we have Nesterovic and Slokar. Puerto Rico is a joke team, they have Arroyo and Ayuso (very good for 3), under the basket theyhave Santiago (he is not in form) and Ramos (has problem against Croatia's centers). Puerto Rico don't know how to play defence, if they have a bad day they can lost against Korea. Arroyo is very nervous player, he got 2 tehnical fouls and he lost many balls. For Slovenia is very important that they will stop shots for 3-points, we have better centers and in offence we have many solutions. I expect that Slovenia will win this with double digit margin.

Pick : Slovenia (-7.5)
Odds : 1.90
Stake: 6
Bookmaker : Unibet

Germany vs Belgium (By: Kobra)

Jaimeg@bettingbasket.com

Basketball, European Championships women u20.

I don't know why favourite in this match is Germany and all bookies confirm this bet on Belgium and favourite practically all is Belgium which is much better team and has much better players. Germany lost all matches very high and average shoots onlu 52 points per match what is very weak result, Belgium lost one match very high but rest matches fought and also lost but after fight. Germany hasn't leader in team and the best player shoots only 9 points per match, Belgium has very good player who played even on last championships U20 in last year and she shoots average 16 points per match. I think that time on first win Belgium.

GL

Pick : Belgium win
Odds : 1.90
Stake: 8
Bookmaker : Betway

Boston Celtics vs Los Angeles Lakers (By: samushao)

Jaimeg@bettingbasket.com

Tonight is the night for the Celtics finish the deal and become NBA Champions. Theuy have a million resons to smile being where they are at. The bookies were hard on them - having them underdogs even after they were leading the series 2-0. They were critisized for individual efforts from different players - despite performing great as the team.

The Lakers are not gonna lay down thou. Tonight will be the most defensive night of the series. !91 points are too much to reac and it will only happen if there will be overtime.

Pick : Under 191 points
Odds : 1.90
Stake: 10
Bookmaker : Bet365

Boston Celtics vs Los Angeles Lakers (By: Tazman4)

Jaimeg@bettingbasket.com

Maybe tonight it's gonna be the night for the Celtics. The night for their 17th NBA Title. In order to do this, they have to win the Lakers. And they know only one way to do so. Defense.

The Celtics are hosting the Lakers for the 6th game of the Nba Finals. The Celtics are facing problems, as Perkins is doubtful and the decision will be made at game time. Moreover, Allen left LA right after the 5th game, due to a family problem, but he will probably play tonight. Rondo is not facing a serious problem, but he isn't at his best after his ankle injury.

On the other hand, the Lakers want to do, what no other team has done before. Win the title, after falling back 3-1. They are not facing problems, but from what they've shown they cannot win the title. They lost 20+ leads in 2 games at home and they managed to win 1 of them at the last second.

I believe that the Celtics will for the win is stronger. They know their problems and they will try to win the game by playing strong defense and hoping that the can get something more from Garnett, than they got at game 5. I think that tonight the score will be low, due to the fact that the teams will face extra fatigue from the flight to Boston, just what we've seen at game 3. Even, Doc Rivers said that he expects both teams to struggle tonight. So, under 191 points, it's a good pick in my opinion.

Pick : Under 191
Odds : 1.91
Stake: 6
Bookmaker : Bwin

Boston Celtics vs Los Angeles Lakers (By: Pokemon)

Jaimeg@bettingbasket.com

6 th game of the NBA Final that faces Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers with a score of 3-2 for Boston Celtics. The season in Boston as local has been impeccable balance in league with a regular 35 victories in 41 matches, while in Play-off has won 12 matches in the 13 games played. In this sense, must not only highlighted the statistics but the sensations that left parties; On the one hand, in both disputed and local parties, there was a control from start to finish the match by Boston Celtics that allowed him to win both matches , While the second left to escape an advantage of 20 points due to relaxation. Already in Los Angeles, while the Lakers won the first game, at 4 and 5 match showed that the level of Boston, still losing more than 20 points could win the match, and in the 5 th game also knew the advantage back up 15 points that enjoyed Lakers. In this sense, I was surprised the handicap of this game because, although the spread of the Lakers was 8 points, Boston has the best balance as local and do not think we lose today, but leave the final decisive; spite to have the doubt Rondo, I think Boston is playing better and should win and win the NBA Finals today.

Pick : Boston Celtics -4
Odds : 1.90
Stake: 7
Bookmaker : Unibet

Telekom Baskets Bonn vs Alba Berlin (By: Hustler)

Jaimeg@bettingbasket.com

Once again i believe we have a slight influence of the last game pace on the bookies line. Sunday 3rd final went easily over but this is another story in Bonn, with the hosts giving their last fight to take the series back to Berlin.

What a better way to do that by playing their style, defense-based basketball that gave them the opportunity during the playoffs to strike against Artland and Skyliners. I think the pace of the last game is in our favor, not only because the line has been set that way quite high for a fixture where the second best defensive team of BBL is involved, but also due to the fact that Michael Koch is not a coach to tolerate a bad defensive performance in a second consecutive game. Maybe he can tolerate loss, afterall Bonn was never the favorite here, but before falling he is certainly going to fight all the way to tie.

Not much to add, i strongly feel we will see a cautious - and perhaps a little nervous game - from the hosts, i don't see many chances for this game to open and even if things go wrong line is quiet protective, since we can afford of getting almost 39 pts. in each QT. I think we will see a QT with less than 32-34 pts. here and this will most probably rule the current bet in our favour. Relatively high stakes for a line i can see going down Tuesday morning. GL!

Pick : Under 155.5
Odds : 1.95
Stake: 8
Bookmaker : Pinnacle

Boston Celtics vs Los Angeles Lakers (By: Pokemon)

Jaimeg@bettingbasket.com

6 th game of the NBA Final that faces Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers with a score of 3-2 for Boston Celtics. In essence, this 6 th game will focus mainly on the confrontation between Paul Pierce (Boston Celtics) and Kobe Bryant (Los Angeles Lakers); Therefore, I believe that in this match Pierce recorded more than 20.5 points for several reasons: First, you just have to see the endorsement Pierce at home to realize the level that demonstrates Pierce as local:

- Atlanta: 16 - 14 - 22 - 22

- Cleveland: 4 -19 - 29 - 41

- Detroit: 22 - 26 - 16

- Los Angeles: 22 - 28

Seeing these annotations be drawn several conclusions: First, the annotation against Atlanta was relatively low because the victories were easy as local leading to a minute under the stadium. Against Cleveland, except the first game, annotation was high remain the basis for the attack in Boston. Against Detroit, found only in the last match due to strong defense of the Pistons. Against Lakers, on both occasions the annotation has been over 20 points.

Pierce comes to a match in spectacular bowling Lakers with an annotation of 38 points and remain the mainstay of the offensive team; Moreover, the victory in front of Lakers 87-81 in the 4 th game was mainly thanks to Pierce took the leadership of team and began playing better make the team. Similarly, when Pierce played on the match 40-minute , always exceeds the figure of 21 points, only in the last game against Detroit as the local failed to exceed the figure of 21 points.

It should be stressed also that many reports suggest that Pierce will be the MVP of the NBA Finals which shows the level by passing Pierce and that should allow more than 21 points in the match, whereas it should write down more than 25 points.

Pick : Pierce over 20.5 points
Odds : 1.85
Stake: 7
Bookmaker : Bwin

Los Angeles Lakers vs Boston Celtics (By: bomfanart)

Jaimeg@bettingbasket.com

Lakers lost the last match dramatically , they were 70-50 front but they managed to lose somehow and today they have to do what they did in the first half of last match .

I again expect another fast and furious start from Lakers and good performance from Kobe which he could not do it in the last match. As they won in the tgird match of this series they have to be more aggressive on Kobe and go to the line.. Kobe should win this game as he is the MVP of this league.

Pick : Kobe to score over 30.5 points
Odds : 1.90
Stake: 10
Bookmaker : Unibet

Los Angeles Lakers vs Boston Celtics (By: bomfanart)

Jaimeg@bettingbasket.com

Lakers lost the last match dramatically , they were 70-50 front but they managed to lose somehow and today they have to do what they did in the first half of last match .

I again expect another fast and furious start from Lakers and good performance from Kobe which he could not do it in the last match.

Pick : -3.5 points handicap ( Half time) for Lakers
Odds : 1.91
Stake: 10
Bookmaker : Betsson

Los Angeles Lakers vs Boston Celtics (By: Pokemon)

Jaimeg@bettingbasket.com

5 th game of the NBA Final that faces Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers and Boston by winning 3-1. For this match, I think that option is a good bet that Allen will have less than 3 assists for several reasons. In these Play-off playing as a visitor Boston, Allen has achieved the following assistance: Against Atlanta: 4-4-3; Against Cleveland: 4-3-2; Against Detroit: 6-2-2; Against Lakers: 2-2 ; In other words, only 4 times that figure has risen (4 of 11), but also the dynamic is clear, as he is throwing better in his shot, the number of assists while lowering ha ido points and their rates have risen clearly observed that in recent matches have to make 2 assists per game. Usually, in games of Boston there are always two players in the team giving more assistance while the other players are left with assistances 1-2: In game 1 of the finals played in Boston were 5 and 7 rondo Allen ; In game 2 of the finals in Boston: 8 and 16 Rondo Pierce; In game 3 of the finals in Los Angeles: Rondo 4, 5 and 3 Garnet Pierce; In the game 4 of the finals in Los Angeles: 7 Pierce Garnet and 3. Similarly, it is remarkable that the Lakers will end escape so easily and will leave today to win the match to retain options for the final victory; addition, Rondo is already more recovered from the ankle problems which would help to more minutes and that dispute on which to focus the direction of the team which will help to Allen have fewer assists. Taking into account the dynamic, Allen has confidence in his shot and is currently entering the game in Boston only to make shots, as, the direction of the team is mainly for Rondo and Pierce, as well as House and Cassell. Therefore, I believe that Allen conducted within 3 assists.

Pick : How many assists will Allen give in the match? - Allen under 3
Odds : 1.85
Stake: 7
Bookmaker : Unibet